Intrastate rivals collide, as No. 20 Clemson visits South Carolina

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

12/30/2008 - Columbia, SC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Bitter rivals will collide in non-conference action this evening, as the South Carolina Gamecocks play host to the undefeated and 20th-ranked Clemson Tigers.

Expect Clemson to enter this tilt with a wealth of confidence, as the team has won all 12 of its games this season. The Tigers are fresh off a 91-72 triumph over Miami-Florida in the ACC opener. That contest took place nine days ago, so it will be interesting to see if Clemson looks rested or rusty. The schedule has been a bit soft thus far, but the fact that the Tigers crushed a strong Miami squad on the road suggests that their strong start is legitimate.

As for South Carolina, a member of the SEC, it has yet to play a league tilt. The Gamecocks are in the midst of a five-game win streak that has enabled them to improve to 9-1 overall, and their most recent outing resulted in a 75-56 triumph over Presbyterian last Tuesday. The lone loss suffered by the team came against the College of Charleston in overtime on the road.

South Carolina owns an 86-72 series lead over Clemson, but the Tigers have won the last four meetings.

Clemson is generating 81.8 ppg this season on 50.1 percent shooting from the floor, and the club is limiting opponents to 61.3 ppg on 39.6 percent field goal efficiency. K.C. Rivers leads a balanced attack for the Tigers with his 14.7 ppg. Trevor Booker provides 14.5 ppg on 57.3 percent shooting, and he is ripping down 9.6 rpg to go along with 30 blocked shots. Rounding out a trio of double-digit scorers is Terrence Oglesby with 12.9 ppg on 42.1 percent accuracy from three-point range. In the 19-point romp over Miami, Clemson got 28 points from Rivers, who was able to connect on 10-of-15 field goal attempts. Oglesby shot his way to 17 points, and Demontez Stitt provided 10 points. The Tigers forced 22 turnovers in the clash and benefited from the fact that the Hurricanes missed 15 of their 27 free throws.

Offensive balance has been a major key to South Carolina's success here in the early going. In recent years, the Gamecocks have struggled to generate points. Through 10 outings, they are posting 81.6 ppg and have four double-digit scorers in the mix. Devan Downey leads the way with 19.0 ppg, and he is also tops with 4.5 apg and 32 steals. Zam Fredrick provides 15.1 ppg, and his average would be even more impressive if he could improve his 39.4 percent shooting from the field. Mike Holmes checks in with 13.0 ppg and 8.8 rpg, while Dominique Archie averages 11.1 ppg and 7.4 rpg. The Gamecocks connected on 58.2 percent of their field goal attempts in the blowout victory over Presbyterian last time out. Archie and Holmes scored 19 points apiece in that game, and they combined to shoot 17-of-20 from the floor. Downey netted 13 points and Fredrick finished with 10.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.